INVESTMENT SENSITIVITY
ANALYSIS OF TAMAN MELATI DINOYO APARTMENT MALANG CITY
Bella
Astrina Classinta Ard, Haris Muhammadun,
Laksono Djoko Nugroho
Fakultas
Teknik, Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Surabaya
E-mail:
Bellaastrina9@gmail.com, hardun.wtu1@gmail.com,
laksononugroho7366@gmail.com
Abstract:
This thesis aims to investigate the investment potential of Taman Melati Dinoyo Apartments, Malang City as a promising form of
property. Through an economic and property market analysis approach, this
research explores the factors that influence investment decisions and the
impact on local economic growth. An in-depth literature study was used to
understand property investment trends and apartment market characteristics. The
data analysis method includes collecting primary data through interviews with
property developers and other related parties. Additionally, secondary data
from financial institutions, local governments and other sources were used to
validate the findings. The results of this research identify the main factors
that influence apartment investment such as property prices, construction
costs, occupancy rates and interest rates. Apart from that, this research can
also be a reference for project developers to identify potential risks and
stimulate effective mitigation strategies by using investment capital that is
used in a ratio of 30% own capital and 70% loans.The analytical method used to analyze this
research is data collection, data processing, income analysis, cash flow and
reviewing financial aspects using the NPV, IRR, BCR, Payback Period method. The
final stage of work is analyzing the sensitivity of investment costs to
investment costs, Sensitivity Analysis rates. The results of the analysis of
the Taman Melati Dinoyo Apartment project, Malang
City, are that it has an NJOP value of Rp. 418,462,5800,000,-
and was declared financially feasible with a positive NPV value of Rp. 55,585,691,096,- IRR is worth – 8.99% which is less than
MARR, namely 7.79%, BCR <1, namely 0.7997 and the payback period is IDR,
186,959,656,- in year 2, sensitivity analysis shows the project an apartment is
declared feasible if the increase in investment reaches 38% and the decrease in
income is 20%.
Keywords: Investment, Taman Melati Dinoyo Malang Apartment, financial aspects, NPV, IRR, BCR,
Payback Period, Sensitivity Analysis.
INTRODUCTION
Malang City
is the second largest city in East Java after Surabaya City, along with Malang
Regency and Batu City, Malang City is part of a unitary region known as Malang
Raya. Malang City has an area of 11,426 km2 and is located at an altitude
between 440 – 667 meters above sea level. Based on data from BPS Malang City,
the population in 2020 was 843,810 people, in 2021 it was 844,933 and in 2022
it was 846,126 people. The population is spread across five districts, namely: Koljen District, Blimbing District,
Kedungkandang District, Sukun
District, Lowokwaru District.
Malang City
as a tourism city is evidenced by various tourist destinations that can be
visited such as: natural tourism, ride tourism, prehistoric tourism, religious
tourism, culinary tourism both in the Malang City area and the Malang Raya
regional area. Mountain areas whose areas are fertile, climate and weather are
cool and have beautiful natural panoramas make tourists interested in visiting
this city, can be seen from data from BPS Malang City, the number of domestic
tourists visiting Malang City in 2020 was 662,570, in 2021 it was 771,670 while
in 2022 it was 2,749,783 tourists and the number of tourist visits in Malang
City until July 2023 through data on the occupancy rate of star classification
hotel rooms reached 61.71 percent.
Malang City
is known as the city of education because it is one of the centers of education
in East Java Province. The existence of public or private institutions based on
education that is of very good quality and leading in this city, Malang City
has as many as 3 State Universities, 4 Private Institutes, 29 Colleges, 8
Academies, and 5 Polytechnics. According to data from BPS East Java last update
on July 20, 2023, in 2020 there were 251,902 students, in 2021 the number of
students in Malang City was 253,158 students, in 2022 there were 255,481
students. The increase in the number of students in this city has indirectly
caused the growth of the need for residential facilities that are rented, such
as boarding houses, rents, dormitories and apartments to increase.
Rapid
economic growth, urbanization, and industrial development have become the main
drivers of the development of the property sector in various cities in
Indonesia. Malang City, as one of the development centers in East Java, is no
exception in attracting the attention of investors in the property sector.
Malang City with significant economic growth and industrial development, has
experienced an increase in demand for comfortable and affordable housing. Taman
Melati Dinoyo Apartment in Malang City emerged as an
attractive alternative in meeting urban housing needs. The presence of modern
facilities, good accessibility, and the potential increase in property values
are important factors that encourage investor interest to invest in apartments.
Taman Melati Dinoyo Apartment in Malang City, located on Jl. M.T.
Haryono no 19 Dinoyo, Lowokwaru,
Malang City with a land area of 4,841 m2, a building area of 25,423 m2, has a
total of 20 floors with a building height of 64.20 meters. The apartment has
the concept of Give You Smart and Natural Living making the apartment a
building that blends with nature, the environment that supports a modern
lifestyle and the existence of high-speed internet technology. Taman Melati Dinoyo Apartment has 728 units with 3 different types,
namely: studio type, type 2 BR, special type.
The number of
developments in Malang City causes the narrower land that can be built and
causes land prices to be more expensive so that policies and thoughts arise to
utilize limited land as much as possible, the concept of vertical development
becomes a reference for investors for office trade and residential flats or
better known as apartments. The concept of vertical residential function
development can optimize land use although it is not the best solution because
it causes an increase in construction value of 1.8% of the construction value
of a single house generally (according to REI Center).
The growth of
apartment value is in great demand by the upper middle class and makes the
level of sales of apartment units high. The current condition of Indonesian
property makes it easier to realize these residential needs as a form of
property business which is then again strengthened by low bank interest from
the previous year so that many capital owners choose to switch from a bank
saving system that hopes to benefit from bank interest to investment in
property because it is considered more profitable.
One of the
profitable property investments because the price continues to increase every
year is apartment project investment. The existence and development of
apartments for the upper middle class which is one of the many forms of housing
is influenced by business factors and not just because of the need for housing.
In addition, large investment costs and the tendency of apartment occupancy
that continues to decline make investment analysis very necessary.
Investments
made must be calculated carefully and precisely using complex calculations.
This is done to assist the task of owners and investors in making decisions
related to the construction of new projects. Investment is faced with a future
full of uncertainty, so before carrying out an investment, it is necessary to
conduct an investment feasibility analysis to determine whether the investment
can be carried out by obtaining profits or vice versa.
This study
aims to determine the feasibility of project investment by reviewing it from a
financial perspective. The financial aspect is carried out to determine the
investment parameters of the price of a land and building, calculate expenses,
receipts that can then be made cash flow during the investment period,
calculate capital returns and investment appraisals from technical analysis
methods, then sensitivity analysis is carried out on each investment, namely:
investment costs, annual costs, investment age and interest rates.
Based on the
description in the background above, several research questions were formulated
as follows: 1) What is the value of the building to be built? 2) How is the
investment feasibility of Taman Melati Dinoyo
Apartment in Malang City, if analyzed by the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal
Rate of Return (IRR), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), and Payback Period (PP)
methods? 3) What is the level of investment sensitivity of Taman Melati Dinoyo Apartment in Malang City?
The
objectives of this study are as follows: 1) Know the value of the building to
be built. 2) Knowing the feasibility of investing in Taman Melati Dinoyo Apartment in Malang City with the Net Present Value
(NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), and Payback
Period (PP) methods. 3) Knowing the level of investment sensitivity of Taman
Melati Dinoyo Apartment in Malang City.
The benefits
of this research include: 1) Can identify a problem that occurs in terms of
apartment project investment. 2) Can apply the knowledge gained to prove in an apartment project investment research. 3) Can analyze
social symptoms that occur in the community to be observed and conclusions are
drawn as appropriate research for the community in the future.
METHOD
Sensitivity analysis research design is an approach to evaluate the
extent to which the results of a study or research model will be influenced by
variations and uncertainties in the value of parameters and assumptions used.
Apartment investment objectives involve evaluating several factors that can
influence investment decisions in apartment properties. Start the research by
providing background context, identifying property market trends, residential
needs and economic factors that can affect the demand and price of an
apartment.
Location selection to determine the most potential location can be seen
from the number of campuses in a sub-district by considering accessibility,
infrastructure development, security and residential needs. There is market
research to understand the demand and supply of apartments in the region. After
reviewing property prices, a financial feasibility study is carried out which
is an integral part of apartment investment research. Calculated from
development costs including land acquisition, construction and other costs.
Reviewing competitors in the area around the project site can adjust
marketing strategies and determine competitive prices by providing apartment
designs and features to influence attractiveness and selling or rental prices
with the intention of accelerating units sold and rented. Below is an
illustration of the research design starting from the background of the
research, the methods used to the results to be obtained, so as to provide an
overview of the course of this research. The stages of research to be carried
out are explained in the following flow chart:
Figure 1 Research Flowchart
Source: processed
researcher, 2023
The subjects in this study are individuals who play a role in the
construction project of the construction of the Taman Melati Apartment,
including the owner or employer, namely PT. Adhi Karya Propety,
a service provider consisting of contractors represented by project managers
and supervisory consultants. The research location is in Malang City – East
Java, precisely on the MT road. Haryono No. 160/4. This location is very
strategic because it is located between several well-known campuses such as Brawijaya University, Uin Malik Ibrahim, POLINEMA, UMM.
The research instruments used in this study are interview guidelines and
observation sheets or observation guides as data collection instruments. Data
collection methods are techniques or ways that can be used by researchers to
collect data. Method (method or technique) designates a word that is abstract
and not embodied in objects, but can only be seen in its use through
questionnaires, interviews, observations, tests, documentation, and others (Riduwan, 2013). In this study, the data collection method
used was using interview, observation methods.
Data analysis is the process of investigating, examining, and
interpreting data to uncover patterns, trends, and information that can be used
for decision making. The purpose of data analysis is to present insights that
can support informational and rational decision making. The process of data
analysis can involve a variety of techniques, methods, and tools, depending on
the nature of the data and the purpose of the analysis.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
A. Investment Cost Analysis
An apartment investment cost analysis
involves a thorough understanding of the costs involved in buying, owning, and
managing the property. Here are some aspects to consider in conducting an
apartment investment cost analysis:
1. Land acquisition fee (based on tax)
Based on the
price survey in the Lowokwaru District area, the
price in the area was Rp. 2,925,000/m2. The area of apartment land to be built
multiplied by the tax value price, then the value is obtained as follows:
1.841 m2 x Rp. 2.925.000/m2 = Rp. 14.159.925.000,-.
Considering
that Lowokwaru District which has a strategic
location and is a profitable investment because the prediction of land prices
every year will increase by up to 20%.
2. Pre construction cost
a. Licensing Fee
Zoning and spatial planning
permits (Article 5 paragraph 1 of ATRBPN Regulation 13/2021):
KKKPR
(Suitability of Spatial Utilization Activities) services for business
activities issuance service rates are calculated based on the formula:
Publishing service fee KKKPR = Business
Type Index x [Rp. 1.500.000, - + (Land x
Regional index x Rp. 1.350.000, -)], boulder:
Publishing service fee KKKPR =
1,50 x [Rp. 1.500.000, -
+ (4.841 m2 x 0,5063 x Rp.
1.350.000, -)]
Calculation results = Rp.
4.965.521.557, - m2
Building Permit (IMB)
Determine
the cost of a Building Permit (IMB) by determining the building index first.
The following is the value of the building index needed to calculate the cost
of IMB according to SK No: KEPWAL NUMBER 354 OF 2022.
Index Integrasi= Index KFuB x Index KLB x
KLob Index x KTib Index Integration Index = 1,75 x 4,5 x 2,25 x 2,5
= 44,297
It is
known that the value of the levy unit price according to the type of building,
which includes multi-storey permanent buildings worth
Rp. 2,367,000, -
Components of levy fees:
Planning
costs and levies are calculated by the formula: Planning= Rp. 500, - x Building
Area
= Rp. 500, - x 4841 m2
= Rp. 2.420.500, -
Levy = 2% x Integration Index x
Area x
Land Unit Price (according to
tax)
= 2% x 44,297 x 4841 m2 x Rp.
2.925.000/m2
= Rp. 12.544.843.955, -
Nuisance Permissions
The
Hinder Ordinary (HO) permit through the Minister of Home Affairs Regulation (Permendagri) Number 19 of 2017 has been officially removed.
Land Use Permit
A land
use permit is an official permit granted by a local government authority or
agency to a land owner or user for a specific activity or change in land use.
This permit acquisition process aims to ensure that land use is in accordance
with applicable regulations and policies in the area. Land use permits are free
of charge.
Permission Reklame
A
billboard permit is an official approval required from the authorities or local
government agencies to place certain billboards or advertisements in a
location. The process of obtaining this permit may vary depending on local
regulations, government regulations, and the type of billboard to be posted.
Based on Malang Mayor Regulation No.34 of 2012 concerning Billboard Tax Rate
remains with a tax period of one year.
B. Production Analysis
Expense
planning for Taman Melati Dinoyo Malang City
apartment consists of operational costs and maintenance costs. Operating costs
include employee costs, electricity costs, and water costs.
1. Employee Salaries
The
organizational structure and the amount of labor required for the operation of
the apartment are needed to analyze expenses. The salary of each employee is
calculated according to the amount of labor and position. Total expenses
derived from employee salaries are calculated by multiplying the number of
employees by the nominal amount of their respective salaries. Employee salary
estimation based on analysis of approaches with similar projects. Total
employee salary expenditure in the first year amounted to Rp. 1,365,600,000.00
Based on the analysis of the calculation of the minimum wage of the city of Surabaya
every year an average increase of 17%.
2. Electricity Cost
According
to ASEAN USAID (1992) about the intensity of energy consumption, for apartment
energy needs of 300 KWh / m2 years. According to
Juwana (2005) the electricity demand for basements, halls, and corridors is 5
watts / m2. The electricity requirement for parking is assumed to be the same
as the basement, which is 5 watts/m2, while the electricity requirement for the
elevator is 20 watt/m2. Electricity for residential units that have been filled
is borne by buyers or tenants, so that the calculated electricity costs are
residential units that have not been filled and existing public facilities
include corridors, stairs and others. Annual electricity needs for basements,
parking lots and elevators are the area multiplied by the electricity needs of KWh / m2.
Basement= 25.423 m2 x
0,005KW/m2 x 24 jam x 365 hari
= 1.113.527 KWh
3. Water Cost
The
cost of residential unit water is borne by the buyer or tenant, so that the
calculated water costs are existing public facilities such as swimming pools,
toilets, public parks and prayer rooms. The amount of water needs per year in
m3 units is:
= 20 liter/m2 x 0,001 m3 x 30 hari x 12moon
= 7,2 liter /m2 per year
The
calculation of water cost expenditure is the annual water requirement
multiplied by the cost of water usage. It is assumed that the occupants of the
studio type are 2 people / unit, the 2BR type is 4 people / unit and the
special type is 5 people / unit.
C. Revenue Analysis
The
income of The Taman Melati Dinoyo Apartment consists
of residential and commercial unit income. Income from residential units in the
form of sales and rentals. Commercial units sold are in the form of shophouses
outside apartments, while those rented are in the form of space for ATMs, function
rooms, child care, cafes, kiosks, restaurants, laundry rooms, fitness center
rooms, offices and service charge income.
1. Commercial Unit Revenue
Commercial
unit income is in the form of selling canteens outside apartments and renting
space for ATMs, function rooms, child care, cafes, kiosks, restaurants, laundry
rooms, fitness center rooms, and offices per year. Commercial unit prices are
obtained from the results of surveys and analysis of approaches with similar
projects. Then adjusted to the area and design of the commercial unit of Taman
Melati Dinoyo apartment in Malang City.
2. Apartment Residential Unit
Rental
The
unit rental price was obtained from a survey to the marketing of Taman Melati
Surabaya. The rental price of residential units including furniture includes
mattresses, cabinets, tv cabinets, kitchen sets, and dining tables. However,
the rental price of residential units does not include additional service
charges, electricity costs and water costs. It is assumed that residential
units from the 5th floor to the 10th floor are rented out.
3. Sales of Apartment
Residential Units
The
selling price of residential units was obtained from a survey to the marketing
of Taman Melati Dinoyo Apartment in Malang City.
Electricity costs and water costs are assumed to be residential units from the
first floor to the 4th floor and the 11th floor to the 18th floor.
4. Service Charge Revenue
The
income of Taman Melati Dinoyo apartment in Malang
City is also obtained from service charges. In this study, a service charge of
30% of the first year's residential and commercial rental income was used. So
that the calculation of income from service charge in the first year is: Service
Charge = 30% x residential rental income and commercial rental
= 30% x Rp. 1.389.315.840
= Rp. 416.794.752, -
D. Debts and Installments
It is
assumed that the amount of debt is 70% of the investment value. The debt comes
from a bank loan that will be repaid for 10 years. The interest rate used is
from the average interest rate of several banks in Indonesia. So that the debt
interest that will be used in the calculation is: 8.00% obtained from the
calculation of the average loan interest rate. The amount of loan repayment:
E. MARR
The
rate of return on capital itself is obtained from the average deposit interest
rate of several banks in Indonesia where the safe rate ± risk. The risk is
assumed to be 1.5% of the safe rate. Rate of return on own capital = safe rate
± risk
= 2,92% ± (1,5 x 2,92%)
= 7,30%
The
rate of return on loan capital is obtained from the average interest rate on
bank loans in Indonesia. Bank interest rates in Indonesia can be seen in Table
4.13. So the capital return rate of this Taman Melati Dinoyo Malang apartment loan is 7.30%. Then it is
calculated with the MARR (Minimum Attractive Rate of Return) of investment as
follows:
MARR = (CoC debt x % debt) +
(CoC equity x CoC equity)
= (8% x 70%) + (7,30% x 30%)
= 7,79 %
F. Terminal Value
Terminal
value is obtained from operating income minus operating expenses then divided
by the Cap Rate. Where revenue of Rp. 21,993,462,275 minus service charge of
Rp. 4,710,182,400 so operating income of Rp. 103,895,099,733.46 and operating
costs of Rp. 44,960,311,315 Because Cap Rate (Capitalization Rate) is an
aggregation or collection of individual investors' MARR, empirically according
to Miles (2007) cap rate is +/- 1% of MARR. Then the terminal value of
operating cost income can be calculated as follows:
G. Aliran Kas
After
calculating the cash flow in and out at the Taman Melati Dinoyo
apartment in Malang City, the cash flow is then calculated. The cash flow
calculation uses the amount of MARR based on the rate of return on own capital
and return on loan capital. Each year's cost is calculated by Discount factor
(DF) using the formula:
Where:
i =
MARR investment = desired rate of return
n = year when expenses are incurred (year 1 to year
20) Example of calculation DF first year:
The criteria used to
assess the feasibility of investing in Taman Melati Dinoyo
Malang City apartments using the NPV IRR, BCR, PP methods, then analyzed
sensitivity. The construction of Taman Melati Dinoyo
apartment in Malang City requires an investment cost of Rp. Rp.
456,995,381,212, - Assuming an investment period of 10 years. From the
calculation of cash flow, a Net Present Value (NPV) feasibility analysis value
of IDR 55,585,691,096 is obtained The calculation of
cash flow can be seen in the Appendix. So the NPV of
Taman Melati apartment in Malang City when using the assumptions used in this
study is financially feasible because the NPV value > 0.
H. Sensitivity Analysis
Sensitivity analysis is
used to determine how much influence a decision has on changes that occur. The
result of the calculation of the NPV value and is a financial analysis of the
Taman Melati Dinoyo Malang apartment is feasible,
then a sensitivity analysis is carried out by changing the parameters to see
the extent to which the project can be said to be feasible or acceptable. In
this final project, the parameters that were changed were residential unit
selling rates, residential unit rental rates, and increased investment costs.
Then we see the relationship to the NPV cash flow of Taman Melati Dinoyo apartment Malang City
Some of the causes of
unfeasible projects include: 1) The burden of debt repayment. 2) High
investment costs. 3) Low rent. 4) Operating expenses. 5) The potential of the
terminal value is changed.
Table 1
Relationship of Residential Selling Cost to NPV
|
tarif jual unit residence |
tarif
jual unit hunian (Rp) |
NPV
(Rp) |
||
|
studio
A |
2BR |
Special |
||
|
20% |
486.000.000.00 |
506.400.000.00 |
996.000.000.00 |
8.249.694.687 |
|
10% |
445.500.000.00 |
464.200.000.00 |
913.000.000.00 |
(20.079.949.656) |
|
now |
405.000.000.00 |
422.000.000.00 |
830.000.000.00 |
(48.409.594.000) |
|
-10% |
364.500.000.00 |
379.800.000.00 |
747.000.000.00 |
(76.739.238.343) |
|
-
20% |
324.000.000.00 |
337.600.000.00 |
664.000.000.00 |
(105.068.882.686) |
Source: Processed Author, 2023
From the
graph of the relationship between the selling rate of residential units to NPV,
it can be seen that the higher the selling rate of residential units, the
higher the NPV value. The limit of investment acceptance for the construction
of Taman Melati Dinoyo apartment in Malang City is
around 18% of the selling rate of residential units set at this time. The cash
flow relationship between the increase in the selling rate of residential units
to NPV is in table 2.
Table
2 Relationship of Residential Rental Rate to NPV
|
tarif
jual unit hunian |
residential
unit rental rate (Rp) |
NPV
(Rp) |
||
|
studio |
2
BR |
Special |
||
|
40% |
3.500.000 |
4.060.000 |
7.700.000 |
3.855.928.042 |
|
20% |
3.000.000 |
3.480.000 |
6.600.000 |
(22.276.832.979) |
|
now |
2.500.000 |
2.900.000 |
5.500.000 |
(48.409.594.000) |
|
-
35% |
2.000.000 |
2.320.000 |
4.400.000 |
(74.542.355.020) |
|
-20% |
1.625.000 |
1.885.000 |
3.575.000 |
(94.141.925.786) |
Source: Processed Author, 2023
From the
graph of the relationship between residential unit rental rates and NPV, it can
be seen that the higher the rental rate per unit, the higher the NPV. The limit
of investment acceptance for the construction of Taman Melati Dinoyo apartment in Malang City is around 38% of the rental
rate of residential units set at this time. The relationship between the effect
of investment costs on NPV can be seen in the following table:
Table
3 Relationship of Investment Cost Effect on NPV
|
Changes in Investment Costs |
Cost
of Investment (IDR) |
NPV
(Rp) |
|
raised 20% |
525.440.496.869 |
(130.897.250.029) |
|
raised 10% |
481.653.788.797 |
(89.653.422.014) |
|
now |
437.867.080.724 |
(48.409.594.000) |
|
down 10% |
394.080.372.652 |
(7.165.765.985) |
|
20% down |
350.293.664.580 |
34.078.062.030 |
Source: Processed Author, 2023
From the graph of the effect of investment costs on NPV, it
can be seen that the lower the investment cost, the higher the NPV, the limit
of investment acceptance for the construction of the Taman Melati Dinoyo
apartment is around 7.79% of the investment cost set at this time. Cash flow
relationship of investment cost effect on NPV.
CONCLUSION
From
the results of this study, several conclusions can be drawn, as follows: 1)
From the calculation results based on the NJOP value, the Taman Melati Dinoyo Apartment building has a value of Rp.
418,462,580,000. 2) Taman Melati Dinoyo Apartment in
Malang City is financially declared feasible to be shown with a positive Net
Present Valus (NPV) value of Rp. 55,585,691,096, IRR of -8.99% which is less
than MARR of 7.79%, BCR < 1 of 0.7997 and Payback Period of 0.992 of Rp. Rp.
186,959,656.53. 3) Sensitivity analysis shows that apartment projects are
declared feasible if the increase in investment reaches 38% and the decrease in
income is 20%
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Copyright holder: Bella Astrina Classinta Ard, Haris Muhammadun, Laksono Djoko
Nugroho (2023) |
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